When modelling to support environmental management, simulation must serve data assimilation. Data assimilation and uncertainty quantification should not be simulation afterthoughts. They should be woven into the fabric of decision-support modelling.
Decision-support modelling is more than just simulation. In fact simulation, on its own, does very little to serve the decision-support imperatives of:
- quantifying the uncertainties of decision-critical model predictions;
- reducing these uncertainties through assimilation of information contained in pertinent data.
It follows that a model, on its own, cannot be an instrument for decision-support. It must be used in partnership with software such as PEST and PEST++. Nor should a model, on its own, constitute a "deliverable". The "deliverable" should be the process of:
- identifying one or more predictions of management interest;
- identifying where information resides that can most effectively reduce the uncertainties of these predictions;
- designing one or more simulation strategies that enables information to flow from where it resides in data to these predictions;
- using a simulator, in concert with programs of the PEST and PEST++ suites to implement that strategy.
These pages were built, and are being maintained, as a service to our industry by the following people (in alphabetical order):
- John Doherty (Watermark Numerical Computing);
- Doug Hayes (S. S. Papadopulos and Associates);
- Chris Muffels (S. S. Papadopulos and Associates).
Contact us if you would like further information.
Assistance in building and maintaining these and the previous web pages was also been provided by (in alphabetical order):
- Environmental Simulations Inc, USA
- National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, Australia
- S. S. Papadopulos and Associates, USA
- Watermark Numerical Computing